China’s population to fall?
China plays a huge part in the global market balance for dairy products
China is the world’s biggest importer of dairy products. Total dairy import volumes were estimated at 17 million tonnes milk equivalent (meq) in 2022. In addition to feeding the Chinese population, these volumes are crucial for the supply and demand balance of the major milk producers such as the EU, NZ and the US. In the case of NZ, China represents 35% of total dairy export volumes; the share is lower for the EU and US, but China is still significant in absorbing surplus production.
In 2022, China’s population fell for the first time in 60 years. The UN has generated three scenarios based on fertility rate, predicting China’s population for the rest of the century. DatumLocus has analysed the impact of each scenario on total Chinese dairy import volumes (see below).
China’s total dairy imports could decline by 65%
Under the Low (Fertility) scenario, China’s dairy imports could fall by as much as -65% (-11.5 million tonnes meq). With this dashboard, we have tried to answer the following questions:
- What is the impact of each scenario on China’s dairy imports, in term both of product weight and of overall milk equivalent?
- What does this mean for major dairy suppliers such as the EU, NZ and the US?
The results highlight the impact of future changes to China’s population on current import and consumption patterns. They assume that other factors, such as the structure of China’s dairy supply, remain constant. We will develop more scenario variations in the near future.